Eastern UAE braces for four-day rain spell as autumn cooling begins
Convective clouds are expected to bring rainfall to eastern areas from Tuesday through Friday, while temperatures ease across the country as the UAE enters meteorological autumn.
Eastern UAE braces for four-day rain spell as autumn cooling begins
The eastern regions of the UAE face a prolonged period of unsettled weather as convective clouds are forecast to bring rainfall from Tuesday through the end of the working week, according to the National Centre of Meteorology.
The NCM, established in 2007 following a federal decree by the late Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and responsible for weather forecasting, early warnings and cloud seeding operations nationwide, expects Tuesday to begin fair to partly cloudy before afternoon convective cloud development over eastern areas potentially triggers rain.
Autumn cooling begins
The arrival of these conditions coincides with the UAE entering meteorological autumn on September 1, marking a shift from summer highs of 42°C or above to temperatures expected to fall below 39°C on most days this month. Tuesday's forecast already reflects this cooling trend, particularly across western areas.
Dubai is expected to reach a high of 43°C with a low of 31°C, while Abu Dhabi will see temperatures peak at 41°C before dropping to 28°C overnight. The highest reading is forecast for Liwa at 45°C, followed by Al Ain at 44°C. Liwa, positioned at the northern edge of the Rub' al Khali desert, routinely experiences some of the UAE's most extreme heat, with summer temperatures in the mid-40s to lower 50s Celsius.
These temperatures remain slightly above September's typical range, as the month is considered transitional with daytime highs averaging between 38.5°C and 40.6°C and nights cooling to between 26.8°C and 29.3°C, according to NCM climatological data.
What's causing the rain
The formation of convective clouds over eastern mountainous regions results from a combination of rising temperatures, daytime heating, mountainous terrain and moisture drawn from the Sea of Oman. This atmospheric pattern is expected to persist throughout the week, with similar conditions forecast for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The broader meteorological driver behind this unsettled spell is the northward advance of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, a low-pressure belt near the equator where trade winds converge, which has been contributing to convective cloud formation and rainfall across the UAE's eastern and southern regions during August.
Humidity and fog conditions
Humidity will increase on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, with levels averaging around 49 percent during September compared to August. This rise heightens the probability of fog or mist forming over some coastal and inland areas overnight. Similar foggy conditions are anticipated overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning and again into Friday morning in some western areas.
Wind and dust activity
Winds will remain light to moderate but are expected to strengthen at times, particularly over western waters where they could reach 40 km/h on Tuesday. The pattern of shifting wind directions reflects typical September behaviour, with southeasterly winds dominating during late night and early morning hours before transitioning to northwesterly in afternoons and evenings due to sea and land breeze circulation.
On Wednesday, convective clouds are again forecast to develop over eastern areas during afternoon hours, potentially bringing rain. Winds may strengthen at times and stir up dust in western regions, while the Arabian Gulf could turn rough at times in the west. This dust activity aligns with the waning influence of the Indian monsoon in September, which is replaced by desert thermal lows over the Arabian Peninsula that can trigger dust storms and reduced visibility.
Week ahead forecast
Thursday brings another anticipated drop in temperatures alongside a continuation of the rain-bearing convective cloud pattern over eastern areas during the afternoon. Winds could again reach 40 km/h and raise dust across parts of the country.
The unsettled conditions are set to round out the working week on Friday with fair to partly cloudy and hazy conditions at times, along with another chance of afternoon rain from convective clouds in eastern areas. Freshening winds may continue to cause blowing dust in some regions.
The UAE has conducted approximately 110 cloud seeding missions since the start of 2026, targeting convective clouds to enhance rainfall whenever suitable cloud formations develop throughout the year, which may play a role in precipitation patterns during this period.
